I am going to stick my neck out and give you my predictions on some of the races on the ballot in Cascade County.  Also predictions on the ballot issues.

District Two US house race.

I think this is one of the easiest races to predict.  Republican incumbent Matt Rosendale has delivered what he said he would deliver and that is conservative values and the people in this district like that.  I think he may win this race by 25-points.  Independent  Gary Buchanan is really a democrat in independent clothing.  He didn't even get into the race until after the primary was over.  I think he only got into the race because the democrats thought their nominee Penny Ronning was a weak candidate.  Ronning will finish third and Libertarian  Sam Rankin dead last.

State Supreme Court Race.

I think this one will be close but I think the incumbent may have the edge. The incumbent is Ingrid Gustafson.  This race has been hotly contested with James Brown as the challenger.  It would not surprise me if he won but it is hard to unseat somebody in a race like this, so I go with Gustafson.  A hell of a lot of money has been spent on this race by democrats and republicans in what is suppose to be a non-partisan race.....now that's funny....non partisan.  These type of races have always been partisan.

District Court Judge 

This is a messy race.  First Michelle Levine is appointed to the bench by former governor Steve Bullock.  She is then removed  by the state senate and newly elected Governor Greg Gianforte appoints David Grubich.  Levine then goes back to being an assistant district attorney in Cascade County and often has cases before Grubich.  In the primary Grubich got about 1200 more votes than Levine.  I like both candidates  but I think Grubich wins.

County Commissioner Race.

I have talked to a few people that think Don Ryan will win this race.  I am not so sure.  If the republicans turn out,  this will be a tuff one for Ryan to win.  And here is the reason I say that.  In the Primary,  Rae Grulkowski had nearly 10,000 votes. Ryan got about 4500.  Did Ryan do enough to close that gap.  I'm not sure he did. He will have to get a lot of republicans to  cross over and I just don't think there is enough to make up about 5,000 votes   So, on that note, I will take Grulkowski.  Don, don't get mad at me, I like you.

Other Key Races and Ballot measures

I think Rina Fontana Moore keeps her seat as clerk and recorder.

referendum No. 131 on abortion? I think this passes.

Taxing legal pot 3% in Cascade County?  I think this will pass easily.

The Cascade County public safety levy to help fund the needs of the sheriff's office and the County attorney's office will pass easily.  Dare I say by 70%?

As far as the ballot question for the city of Great Falls on whether or not to allow marijuana dispensaries in the city limits?  This one I think is tuff to call.   I think the ballot wording will be confusing to some.  This one may get defeated and I think this is the hardest issue to make a call on. I will go with defeat.  There I said it.  I think a lot of Great Falls residents are all about taxing marijuana but not for shops in town.

Those are my picks.  Care to comment?  write me at: pat.frisch@townsquaremedia.com



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