We all know it's only a matter of time before the snow and cold settles throughout Montana.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but a significant weather shift is expected later this week.

This will allow many areas in Montana to experience the season's first freeze.

After a warm start to the week, afternoon temperatures will be much cooler on Thursday. For most areas, it will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than it was earlier in the week. Plan ahead for the changes.
Great Falls National Weather Service
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Rain Chances Shift for Montana

The latest forecast models have reduced the rain probabilities for northcentral Montana from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

However, southwestern Montana is expected to bear the brunt of this next weather system.

A 1/10 of an inch of rain or more is expected south of Cascade and Lewistown.

In southwestern Montana, there's about a 60% to 80% chance of receiving at least 1/10 of an inch of rain and a 30% to 60% probability of a quarter inch or more of precipitation.

In northcentral Montana, the most significant weather impacts will be windy conditions as the cold front moves through the area.

A Pacific cold front will move through MT Wednesday night into Thursday. Gusty winds will be likely Thursday morning along the front range of the Rockies along with areas around Browning and Cut Bank.
Great Falls National Weather Service
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Mountain Snow Expected

In addition to the rain in central and southcentral Montana, snow is expected in the mountains.

Areas above 6,000 feet have over a 60% chance of picking up four or more inches of snow during this period.

Snow levels are forecast to drop as low as 4,500 feet by Thursday night into Friday morning, which may bring a dusting of snow to some lower elevations.

However, significant accumulations will likely be confined to locations above 6,000 feet.

Snow is expected to fall later this week over the mountains of Southwest MT. The heaviest snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains around Big Sky. This image shows the probability of 4 inches or more of snowfall.
Great Falls National Weather Service
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Snowfall Probabilities Along the Rocky Mountain Front

The forecast models have backed off quite a bit on the snowfall probabilities for the Rocky Mountain front.

Early model runs indicated a 70% to 90% chance of receiving two inches of snow in this area.

But more recently, that has been reduced significantly.

Outlook for the Weekend and Early Next Week

Following this incoming cold front, cooler temperatures will linger through Friday.

This weekend, temperatures will rebound slightly and stay mild into the first part of next week.

Read Next: There’s A New Term For Cold Weather Warnings In Montana

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