Here’s How Ocean Temperatures Impact Our Summer In Montana

You might wonder how ocean temperatures affect our summers here in the Treasure State.

Believe it or not, they have a significant impact on our weather and how things will unfold over the next few months.

In this article, we'll dive into the science and take a closer look at the conditions we can expect this summer.

 El Niño-Southern Oscillation And What It Means

You've probably heard a lot of talk about La Niña and its impact on our weather here in the Treasure State.

Ultimately, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, refers to the trade winds along the equator, and La Niña is one of the two phases of the ENSO.

Long story short, La Niña means colder water along the equator extending toward the West Coast.

The current La Niña conditions are expected to fade over the next month and return to more normal conditions.

We're not expected to swing toward El Niño conditions, which would mean warmer water along the West Coast, but instead we'll enter a period of more average sea surface temperatures along the equator.

Generally, when we have neutral oceanic temperatures along the equator, this tends to open up the atmosphere and allow for better flow across the United States.

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation

This term refers to oceanic temperatures off the north Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska.

If we want to experience the full impact of neutral ENSO conditions along the equator, we need to have some cooler water off the north Pacific.

Colder water in the north Pacific would correlate with a negative PDO and tends to help with storm development off the coast, which in turn impacts Montana.

Unfortunately, we are currently experiencing a warmer phase and more favorable conditions in this region.

Warmer ocean temperatures in this area tend to contradict the impacts we might experience from having a more neutral ENSO.

What Do Ocean Temperatures Mean For Montana?

Don't get me wrong; many factors influence our weather here in Montana, but oceanic temperatures are a significant player.

Neutral ENSO conditions are generally beneficial for Montana; however, a positive PDO is not quite as favorable.

There are a few other weather elements that we won't get into in this article, but ultimately, the oceanic temperatures are favoring timely rains in the spring and a hot, dry summer throughout the state later this summer.

If oceanic temperatures along the equator tend to stay more neutral later this summer, we should still get a few breakaway storms that provide decent moisture.

But overall, the conditions are pointing toward a hot and dry summer here in Montana.

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